Monday, August 27, 2018

Big Dry-Out Underway

Storms developed on mountains before noon yesterday - Kitt Peak above about 10:30 am MST - building hopes for more active day. However, there was little activity during afternoon as per plot of CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) below for 24-hours ending at midnight last night.  Evening sounding showed that the well-mixed BL in moisture was quite shallow and not very supportive of deep convection.

By evening there were only some moderate build-ups and orphan anvils around (below)

The dry-out is underway now and we can expect a quiet and hot week. The forecast above is of PW (from 06 UTC WRF-NAM run) and is valid at midnight tonight - it's been quite some time since we've had values so low.

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