Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Dry-Out: How Long?

Lightning CG flash density plot above for past 24-hours (from weather.graphics and Vaisala) shows that almost the entire Southwest, west of the Front Ranges of Rockies, has been totally suppressed. The 2-day time series of GPS PW, from on campus (below), indicates that values dropped from well above 40 mm to around 20 mm this morning.

How long will it last? Long-range global models are not consistent at this time - the ECMWF basically keeps us in a transition pattern through next seven or so days, while the GEFS indicates that monsoon wind patterns and some moisture may return by end of the week. So right now it's a bit of a coin toss for Labor Day weekend.

Weather cartoon at bottom from David Fitzsimmons, in his book about his past 30 years of cartooning at the Arizona Daily Star.

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