Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Cool Morning - Moisture Trying To Return

It was the coolest morning here in a number of weeks and was much more pleasant for walking at sunrise. Low here was 67 F, while airport was warmer at 74 F.

High PW air is lurking just south of 30 degrees N this morning, and widespread thunderstorm activity over Sonora is likely to push the moisture back into Arizona.  The plot of detected CG flashes (above from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 12-hours ending at 1:00 am MST this morning.

The WRF models from last night forecast storms this evening and tonight as far north as the Borderlands out into western Pima County. The forecast below (from 06 UTC WRF-GFS) is for PW valid at midnight tonight - a large outflow from the northern Sonora storms acts to bring a significant return of higher PW air into much of southern Arizona.

The eastern Pacific tropics are also very active (MIMIC total PW analysis above for 6:00 am this morning) - the three storms lined up west-to-east near 20 N are: remnants of Hurricane Lane; TS Miriam; and TS Norman. There is already another disturbance southeast of Norman near 100 W. Norman is forecast to become a hurricane as it heads generally westward (morning outlook for next five days below from NHC). The trailing disturbance is forecast to become a hurricane (by ECMWF but is not even captured yet in GEFS forecasts), and to perhaps track nearer to Baja.

The Labor Day weekend is already beginning to look more interesting!

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