Sunday, August 26, 2018

Mostly Mountain Storms Yesterday

View from campus at 5:00 pm MST shows storm over Catalinas. Plot of detected CGs (below from Atmo and Vaisala is for 24-hours through 1:00 am this morning) shows thunderstorms stayed mostly on mountains, with only a couple of cells trying to move north into metro area. There were storms far to west yesterday also, as trough aloft was edging closer to Arizona.

ALERT map second below (for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am) shows rainfall reports mainly in mountains, with several sites south of airport reporting some rain. 

The morning sounding at TWC (skew-T above from SPC, as is 250 mb analysis below) has considerably more potential CAPE than did yesterday's. If well-mixed afternoon BL builds to above 800 mb, there will be potential for storms at lower elevations today. Light and variable winds continue below 500 mb, but with stronger winds above. Steering winds should be from 500 to 300 mb, which would move storms to northeast.

The 250 mb analysis shows that this is clearly a transition pattern, as we are now withing the leading portion of the western, upper-tropospheric trough. The strong jet winds impinging into Northwest will continue the advance of the trough and bring a big dry-out during next couple of days.

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