Friday, October 05, 2018

Very Quick Look Ahead

A strong and cold closed low/trough at 500 mb will move across Arizona Saturday evening through Monday morning. Available WRF model forecasts this morning agree on this being another significant event up in the northern half of the state. Forecasts are more of a mixed bag for southeastern Arizona - the GFS version forecasts storms across eastern Pima County, while the NAM version is drier. Regardless, it will be quite a change due to cooler temperatures.

The PW values are very low this morning over southeast Arizona and it was a cool morning here, with low of 54 F. Above shows MIMIC TPW for 7:00 am this morning. Sergio remains a Cat 3 storm and is currently moving westward. Global models continue to forecast a north and then northeastward turn for Sergio, with storm's remnants moving across Baja by end of next week.

The GEFS plumes for QPF at TUS reflect both systems, and the long term potential for another TS significant precipitation event.

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