Friday, October 19, 2018

Quick Update - Little Change In Model Forecasts

There is little change in the model forecasts this morning wrt to yesterday's post. Low-level moisture is increasing from the east and then will be joined by higher PW from the south later this weekend. 

The plumes for QPF at TUS (above from 06 UTC forecast runs this morning) all indicate measurable rainfall at the airport by early Monday. The 06 UTC forecast from the WRF-GFS (below, valid through 5:00 am MST on Monday morning) actually forecasts amounts at the airport (0.4") greater than any of the ensemble members - this is due to model forecasting that airport will get a direct hit by a thunderstorm. All of the higher amounts in WRF forecast are due to thunderstorms the model develops, and we know that where and when forecasts of such isolated events are usually not very accurate. But the increased moisture and trough to west continue to indicate that we'll see showers and storms here and there over weekend.

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