Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Michael Strikes Southeast - Wet Weekend Possible Here

Michael above will make landfall later this morning as very intense hurricane.

Meanwhile, remnants of Sergio (now a TS) are definitely heading northeastward this morning - as forecast for days by the global models - IR image below.

Conditions continue very dry over Southwest and G0C (above is MIMIC TPW for 6:00 am MST this morning), and main influx of moisture for Friday and weekend will come as Sergio remnants pass by to our southeast - exact path Sergio follows will be critical regarding precipitation amounts over southeast Arizona.

Below shows GEFS QPF plumes (from 06 UTC last night) forecast for TUS. While all the members forecast rainfall during period 12th through 18th October, it should be noted that the amounts have a very large range (over an inch and a half) and that timing is also chaotic after Saturday. The operational GFS (blue) is a wet outlier at this time. Will see what next few days bring us. 

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