Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Wet October Continues

View from campus of heavy clouds rolling in at 5:00 pm MST yesterday afternoon.

Once again 100% rainfall coverage across the ALERT network (except Tubac which had less than 0.04"), with heaviest amounts along west side of Catalinas. The Rillito was flowing this morning following the nighttime rains. Here at the house there was a bit of rain before midnight, but most of the 0.43" in the gauge this morning fell during a brief, heavy thunderstorm around 2:00 am. Atmo also measured 0.43" and TUS had 0.41", but DM reports only 0.16". Here at house the 2.57" of rain so far this month makes it already the second wettest October in my 20 years of records.

The morning 500 mb analysis (below, from SPC) shows the center of the closed low out near Quartzsite in western Arizona. However, a short wave swinging around southeast side of the low is shifting moisture and precipitation eastward. Bottom two graphics are morning skew-T plots for TWC and Yuma at bottom (also from SPC), While TWC was very moist at sounding time, the short wave has taken the showers on to the east. 

There is very dry air aloft coming around the west side of the cyclone, as per the Yuma sounding. The 12 UTC WRF-RR this morning forecasts a few light showers around eastern Pima County this afternoon - followed by dry conditions that will likely continue until the weekend.

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