Thursday, January 31, 2019

Quick Look At Shower Situation

Northwest view from LAX this morning - dreary, dark with light rain.

Below shows NCAR RAP 500 mb analysis for 12 UTC this morning. The small cyclone west of California continues to move south-southeastward along the coast. Associated rainfall has been expanding and now now extends fro LA Basin northward into central Valley.

The WRF model forecasts have tended toward a slightly more damp event (amounts here and there in Pimas County of Trace to a tenth of an inch). The timing of the short event has also been forecast to shift more into the day tomorrow. Forecast QPF plumes for TUS from the 15 UTC run of the SREF models are shown above. Amounts remain small and timing is spread through day tomorrow.

The satellite image below (from GOES 17) is for middle level WV (band 9) at 17 UTC. The very dry air wrapping around the low may well play a role in keeping amounts light here.

Still watching.

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