We have been away a couple of days and missed the snow excitement here in Tucson. However, we did experience a bit of snow at Santa Rita Abbey near Sonoita (above). Art Douglas sent the photo below of snow cover at his place in Ash Canyon (south of Sierra Vista) . Art also sent Mexican surface observations for the stations in northern Mexico south of Arizona. The previous system (which dug far south over Mexico) resulted in temperatures in the range of 10 to 15 F - which is very cold for down there.
A quick look at 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecasts indicates that the next system, over the weekend, will have a substantial influx of moisture from low-latitudes, and thus more potential for heavier rains. Forecast above shows PW (on 5.4 km grid) valid at 9:00 pm MST on the 5th. Below is the same run's forecast of precipitation through 11:00 am on Sunday the 6th.
More later.
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