First, a drone photo (from November 10th) of his place in Ash Canyon south of Sierra Vista. View is looking basically toward the west - I think top right is Miller Peak at 9470 ft MSL.
This morning there is a strong, 500 mb short wave over the Great Basin that is moving rapidly eastward (analysis above for 12 UTC from SPC - note, whose staff are working without pay during this miserable, government shutdown). The 06 UTC WRF-GFS 500 mb forecast (below) is valid at midnight tonight and indicates by that time the short wave will be be strung out from central South Dakota back south-southwestward to eastern Arizona. Very cold middle-level temperatures will be moving across the state with this system (-20 to -30 C).
The GEFS plumes from 06 YTC for TUS (above for T and below for wind) forecast marked cooling for tonight and tomorrow, followed by a rapid warm-up for rest of week. The wind forecast indicates indicates strong winds today with the system. At bottom is 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of winds valid at 3:00 pm MST this afternoon.
So it looks like the system coming rapidly by will be the main weather event for the week.
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