Still snowing in Kalamazoo, Michigan this morning, and still Christmas in Alpine, Wyoming (north of Star Valley Ranch).
This morning there is a weak, and small, mid-upper level closed low well west-northwest of San Francisco (captured above in 14 UTC IR image from GOES-17). This system is forecast to weaken further as it moves across Arizona late tomorrow.
Models have some disagreement among them. The plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS forecasts indicate some chances of showers tomorrow night at airport, with amounts from Trace to about a tenth of an inch. Meanwhile, the various WRF, high-resolution forecasts available this morning from Atmo keep this system moisture-starved with no precipitation for southern Arizona through mid-day Saturday (below is GFS version from 06 UTC).
Will keep watching.
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