Two early morning California webcam images here. Above shows rainy and foggy conditions at LAX. Down at bottom is strange image of the pier at Huntington Beach - appears as if a number of large torches are burning out on pier - seems very strange to me - if anyone knows what's going on, please let me know.
Forecast plumes for QPF at TUS above are from the 09 UTC run of the SREF ensembles. Range of forecasts goes from about 0.25" up to a bit over 0.80", with average at 0.50". Below are two precipitation total forecasts from the 06 UTC WRF runs at Atmo - period goes through 6:00 pm tomorrow evening (top is from WRF-GFS, while second is from WRF-NAM). These forecasts are drier than the runs shown yesterday by Mike L. in his mid-day discussion, and also much drier that any of the plumes shown above. Both models continue to forecast very heavy, orographic rains for Catalinas and Rincons.
The 500 mb forecast above is from 12 UTC run of the NAM model - note that a very weak shortwave scoots by Arizona and is over Colorado by 12 UTC tomorrow. The main cyclone remains far to our north-northwest, with strong, subtropical, westerly winds across Arizona.
The forecast sounding for TWC below (from 06 UTC WRF-GFS) is valid at midnight tonight. The PW for this sounding is very high, at 31 mm, with moist air from surface to 500 mb. The low-level winds are strong and westerly. The high resolution WRF forecasts may be keeping some of the lower elevations drier because of the westerly fetch, that could be producing some subsidence at low levels.
This type of profile often produces higher rain amounts here in north part of town (with showers from the northern Tucson Mountains), and also on west side of Catalinas.
Quite a range in forecasts amounts for metro area - so take your pick, but also keep close eye on how details of this situation evolve.
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