Heavy, low cloud cover overhead and on the Catalinas at 7:35 am MST this morning.
There were some light showers here yesterday during the day that added 0.03", making total for day 0.25" and for event right at 0.75". So, quite a wet start to February.
Cold low at 500 mb has come ashore in northern California this morning (12 UTC 55 mb analysis above from SPC). Right now the trough to south of low is very flat, but this morning's forecast from the 12 UTC NAM (500 mb below, valid at 12 UTC tomorrow morning) indicates a marked sharpening of the southern portion of the trough as it moves into Great Basin and Southwest.
The current (12 UTC - above) MIMIC analysis of TPW seems to indicate that the low-level moisture plume will stay south into northern Mexico. If the approaching trough were to shift the plume northward, it would have significant impacts on precipitation amounts this side of the border. The 06 UTC forecast from the WRF-GFS (below on 5.4 km grid) shows model forecast precipitation through midnight on the 7th, with heavy precipitation to our north and also over northwestern Mexico to the south. Will take another look at the TPW later this afternoon and evening.
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