Models Bounce Toward Wetter Event

Photo of Saturday sunset west of Chandler, taken by neighbor Jodi Ferner - looks like three cloud layers with lowest layer resulting in greenish hue, top left corner, portion of middle-cloud deck.

Another cold morning here, with a hard freeze (low at house 22 F).

Forecast models continue bouncing around with their forecasts for Thursday and Thursday night. Current 06 UTC runs now wetter than were yesterday's. Above is GEFS plumes for rainfall amounts at TUS, while below is plot of probabilities of measurable rainfall during 3-hour periods.  

The WRF-GFS forecasts have changed in similar way in the 06 UTC runs at Atmo. Above is forecast (on 5.4 km grid) for PW valid at midnight on Valentine's Day, bringing the subtropical moisture plume eastward across most of southern Arizona. Below shows forecast total precipitation through 6:00 am MST on Friday the 15th, indicating a fairly significant event for most of the state.

Moisture plume currently far off of West Coast, between Hawaii and California, so need to keep watching evolution of situation next two days.