First, a look at the ALERT rainfall reports. Above shows the rainfall for the six hours ending at 6:00 am MST this morning. Measurable amounts reported for entire network except fo 3 sites. The heavy amounts on Mt. Lemmon seemed a bit suspect, but I looked at hourly amounts (below) for Mt. Lemmon staring at midnight. So, it appears that just in last 7, or so, hours almost 3 inches of RAIN has fallen up on the mountain! Here at house 0.22" has fallen since midnight.
These two ALERT plots show rainfall for entire event as of about 6:30 am this morning. Above shows northern portion of network, while southern portions are below. Amounts have been surprisingly large locally. Total here at house has been 0.72"; at TUS 0.52"; and at DM 0.61". I suspect that the intrusion of low-latitude moisture that got into southeastern Arizona yesterday morning help considerably in producing the heavier amounts. Mt. Lemmon comes in with rainfall over 4 inches, and most of main metro area received 1/2 to 3/4s inches.
The 09 UTC plumes shown in yesterday's post (details there, but graph shown again above) seriously under-forecast QPF amounts in metro area, as did other forecasts. I certainly would not have gone for such large accumulations.
Just for background, the 12 UTC 500 mb analysis (below from NCAR) for this morning shows the deep low and trough continuing along the West Coast. This pattern has been producing huge amounts of snowfall in the northern California Sierras, and serious flooding along southern coastal sections. Looks like the trough pattern will bring us continued risks of showers through Wednesday.
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