Heavy overcast of middle to high-level clouds this morning. as per view above from Kitt Peak looking north. However,the lower portions of troposphere remain very dry at this time - TWC morning sounding indicates only 0.6 cm of PW.
Down at bottom is view of University of Wisconsin in late afternoon yesterday during the heavy snow storm.
MIMIC TPW (above for 13 UTC this morning) shows that the broad plume of subtropical moisture is now much closer to southern California (precipitation in California now occurring over coast south to Vandenberg).
As the plume of high moisture shifts south and east, it spreads across southern Arizona (as per 06 UTC GEFS plumes for PW above). Spiking at well over an inch tomorrow night. Precipitation amounts forecast through Friday am have continued to increase substantially at TUS (below).
The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecasts at ATMO have done the same - above are precipitation totals through 5:00 pm MST Friday. Forecast below (from 00 UTC run on 5.4 km grid) shows total forecast precipitation through 5:00 pm on February 20th. The entire West is forecast to have a very wet week, with huge snowfalls in the California Sierras.
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