Saturday, March 16, 2019

Bit Unsettled Today

Old Bisbee webcam view at 6:40 am MST this morning. There have been some thunderstorms, with light showers, this early morning over far southeast Arizona. 

The culprit is a weak, closed 500mb low over southwestern Arizona - see 12 UTC 500 analysis below from SPC. Low is centered somewhere north of Yuma, with coldest 500 mb air over eastern half of state.

WRF models forecast storms and light showers this afternoon over Santa Cruz County, extending northward over parts of metro area. Radar composite forecast above is from 12 UTC WRF-RR and is valid at 7:00 pm this evening. Forecast Tucson skew-T below (from 06 UTC WRF-GFS) is valid at 5:00 pm this afternoon - model forecasts a sliver of CAPE at that time. Any showers/storms would be based fairly high (reflecting the low moisture levels) and any showers around here would be very light, due to strong, downslope easterly surface winds. 

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