Friday, March 08, 2019

Short Wave Coming By Today

A weakening, positively tilted, short wave from the Pacific will be moving across the Southwest today into tomorrow (morning 500 mb analysis above from NCAR RAP).

It is another dreary morning here, with high-cloud overcast - water vapor image (from 13 UTC) shows a long plume of upper-level moisture from south of Hawaii eastward across the Southwest. However, webcam image from Kitt Peak a bit after 7:00 am MST this morning (second below) indicates that there is lower cloudiness out to our west.

None of the GEFS or WRF runs from last night forecast precipitation at the airport (plumes above from 06 UTC GEFS forecasts for TUS) do indicate a much better chance for rainfall at the airport next Monday night/Tuesday.

Main concern today is how strongly winds will break through to surface. The 06 UTC WRF-GFS (below from Atmo) is for 10-m winds valid at 3:00 pm this afternoon. Quite strong winds forecast by that model - especially for Cochise County and southwestern New Mexico.

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