Tuesday, March 05, 2019

Model Outlooks For Later This Week

Models are trending toward a change in large-scale pattern, with some chances for precipitation here at TUS before and after the coming weekend.

The GEFS plumes here are from 06 UTC last night. Plumes for QPF at airport (above) are showing some chances for a light rainfall/showery event Friday and Friday evening. This is followed by better chances for a bit more on next Monday into Tuesday. However, plumes for PW (below) currently forecast both events to be moisture starved with only some members forecasting up to half an inch.

The operational ECMWF (above from 00 UTC last evening) shows the changing pattern, with strong 500 mb trough shifting into West - forecast above is valid at 5:00 pm MST on next Friday afternoon. While the 00 UTC WRF-GFS (below) indicates a period of strong winds for southeastern Arizona Friday afternoon. All of this provides us with weather possibilities to follow this week.

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