Sunday, March 10, 2019

Look At Our Impending Weather Event

Current Sunday morning NWS forecast for event total rainfalls.

Above is the 12 UTC GFS 500 mb analysis. The large trough off West coast is forecast to come across the Southwest early this week, with southern portion closing off and moving eastward along the Borderlands while northern portion shears away rapidly to the northeast. Satellite water vapor image (for upper-levels, below) is from 11:00 am MST this morning. There appears to be a dominant  southern circulation west of northern Baja, with the weaker circulation to north near San Francisco. Second below is 12 UTC GFS 500 mb forecast valid at 5:00 pm Tuesday afternoon (the 12th),

The GEFS QPF plumes for TUS (above) are from 12 UTC forecasts this morning - event occurs mostly Monday night into early Wednesday. Forecast amounts for airport range from 0.3 to 1.2 inches, with average amount coming in at 0.6 inches.

Wild card in this event is moisture advection from lower latitudes (12 UTC WRF-NAM forecast this morning - below) is for 700 mb RH and is valid at 11:00 pm tomorrow night, the 11th. The model forecast indicates moisture from low-latitudes reaches into southeastern Arizona - will have to watch this aspect of event tomorrow.

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