Wednesday, March 06, 2019

End Of Week "Event" Fizzling

Webcam view at Mono Lake, California, this morning (from Jack Hales CamWall). Snow falling as weak short wave moves across the area. The next short wave (which was threatening a light precipitation event in our area) comes in much stronger and threatens much of California with another significant event, with heavy rains and mountain snows extending inland across the Great Basin and Colorado.

The 09 UTC SREF ensembles for end of week here (TUS QPF - above) are all over place, but with only a third of members forecasting even a Trace here. The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of precipitation through 11:00 am MST (below) now indicates only a slight event for northern portions of Arizona. 

However, the next system, which will threaten our area on Monday and Tuesday (see four panels with precipitation forecasts at bottom - from 06 UTC GEFS forecasts) seems to have some chances for actually picking up some moisture from low latitudes (forecasts are valid at 5:00 pm Monday afternoon). So our attention will mostly shift out to this time frame.

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