Friday, February 28, 2020

Model Forecasts Bring Showers To Start March

Heavy, undulating clouds overhead this morning at about 7:30 am MST. The stream of clouds is being generated by a broad cyclone west of southern California (IR satellite image below from 6:51 am). The moisture and clouds are very high (above 500 mb) and low-levels are very dry - thus, little chance for sprinkles today. The system that threatens to bring shows to start March is captured in the satellite view off west of Washington state.

The 500 mb forecast above (from 06 UTC GFS valid at 5:00 am this morning) shows both the southern and northern systems. By around noon on Monday the northern system dominates, and is forecast to be centered nearly over Yuma (below).

The GEFS ensemble forecasts from 06 UTC this morning are clustered tightly, all but one member forecast measurable rainfall at airport during the day Monday, with average amount over a tenth of an inch. Current morning NWS forecast shown below. 

Monday is three days out, so considerable uncertainty as to how exactly this event will evolve, but something to follow as February draws to an end with its Leap Year's extra day tomorrow. 

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