Saturday, October 23, 2021

October Winding Down

October has been very quiet, but there's a bit of Southwestern US weather to write about as the last week of the month begins. 

There was some color just around sunrise this morning: above view from campus and at bottom the view east along I-10 from Wilcox.

Forecast above from 06 UTC GFS is for 500 mb valid at 12 UTC on Tuesday morning (October 26th).  A sharp 500 mb trough is located near Tucson as it moves to the east, Conditions are very dry with this system, and its main impact will be to bring a couple of chilly mornings here in Tucson metro area. Two forecasts below are from the 06 UTC GEFS model runs. Chances for very light sprinkle/showers are indicated on Tuesday morning (below), and temperatures (second below) are forecast to be much cooler on Tuesday and Wednesday, before a rapid rebound.

Finally, there is a new, named tropical system over the Eastern Pacific. Tropical Storm Rick was named yesterday afternoon and was upgraded by NHC to Hurricane Rick this morning. Rick is forecast to move northward into western Mexico, and to intensify into a moderate to strong hurricane before making landfall. Above is a visible image of Rick from 1550 UTC this morning, and below is current forecast track from NHC.

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