Friday The Thirteenth - A Look To Next Week

View toward the Rincons at 7:15 am MST this morning, with a bit of a short contrail captured also.

Forecasts are trending wet from late Saturday through Wednesday night next week. Above shows morning forecast from Tucson NWS Forecast Office, while below shows 06 UTC plumes from GEFS for QPF at the airport - very large range of amounts in the GEFS continues. Second below shows the temperatures plumes forecast for the airport, with strong cooling beginning on Sunday.

The 500 mb forecast above is from the 06 GFS and is valid at 18 UTC on Tuesday the 17th - a broad trough has settled over the West with a number of embedded shortwaves.

Forecast below is from the 00 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo, showing a major precipitation event for Arizona - forecast goes through midnight next Wednesday. Amount at airport (one inch) is similar to the GEFS plumes.