Friday, November 24, 2023

Unsettled Weekend

Colorful skies (purple to yellow/green) over the Rincons at 6:40 am MST this morning, as the long Thanksgiving weekend continues.

At 500 mb (above) there is a large, closed low over the Great Basin. This feature will move east-southeastward during coming two days and weaken markedly. The morning sounding from TWC/TUS (below) is very dry and stable, with strong winds aloft.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) indicate very slight chance for light showers at the airport tomorrow.

The current NWS forecast (above) indicates 30 percent POPS at the airport late today into Saturday morning. However, the 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo (below) keeps southeastern Arizona very dry through next Monday night, which certainly fits with the morning sounding. Regardless, our very dry November continues.

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