Have taken a quick look at Atmo's early run of the GFS-WRF (it is run about midnight with initialization from last evening's NWS GFS). Above is the forecast of composite radar echoes valid at 2 am tomorrow morning (Wednesday the 19th). This band of light showers is pretty much the precipitation part of the event and it passes quickly. The forecast TUS sounding (below) indicates a saturated layer from about 850 to 600 mb and dry above - similar to the situation discussed in an earlier post for the last event.
The total precipitation forecast by the WRF-GFS through noon on Wednesday is shown below. The early forecast indicates a very light rainfall event at low elevations, with better amounts of precipitation in the Catalinas and Rincons. Will be interesting to see what the morning forecasts do wrt this storm.
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