The models continue to forecast a widespread precipitation event for Arizona as the 500 mb short wave digs down the California coast and then comes ashore in the Southwest Thursday night and Friday. The models forecast a significant plume of subtropical moisture flowing into the system from the south - above is GFS forecast of 700 mb RH valid at midnight Thursday night. Below is the GFS forecast of total precipitation from this morning through 5 pm on Friday afternoon - indicating significant precipitation for all the Southwest and northwestern Mexico (again note the south-to-north axis of heavy precipitation).
The early WRF-GFS forecast from Atmo (above) of precipitation through Friday afternoon also forecasts significant precipitation across all of Pima County, with an inch indicated in central Tucson. It will be interesting to watch how the moisture feed develops during the next 36-hours. The 1600 UTC blended PW product for the eastern Pacific (below) indicates fairly dry conditions currently with and ahead of the system. I certainly hope the models are right with this event - the last time we had a quarter inch or more of rain here at house was on September 2nd when 0.35" fell.
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