Rain has moved into southern California this morning, with snow on the higher mountains - above surface plot from NCAR RAL at just a bit before 9 am MST. The blended PW graphic (below, from about 4 am MST this morning) indicates two things currently taking place. The increased PW into southern California is resulting from moisture convergence along the Pacific cold front. Increased PW is also advecting northward from the subtropics on both sides of Baja, as the models have been predicting. So, moisture increasing from both south and west into Arizona.
Another cold morning here at the house - lows last three mornings have been 26F, 30F, and 34F. Saw a nice meteor before dawn, as the Geminids increase - peak tonight will be obscured by the storm clouds.
The new NAM forecast this morning for total precipitation through 5 pm tomorrow afternoon is shown above. Note the minimum in precipitation centered over Tucson! Precipitation through the same period forecast by the early WRF-GFS at Atmo is shown below - minimum precipitation area more pronounced and larger, extending from Tucson area northwestward across Pinal and Maricopa Counties. The WRF forecasts another episode of precipitation across Tucson area on Saturday, as a trailing short wave moves across southern Arizona. Several interesting weather days on tap for the first time in months.
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