I've shown two panels from the 144-hour ECMWF operational model (valid time is 5 am MST on New Years Day). The model forecasts a 500 mb closed low (above) over northern Baja at this time. The 700 mb forecast valid the same time (below) indicates a broad plume of subtropical moisture from the south, as well as substantial moisture from the east, impacting Arizona. If accurate, this forecast indicates a wet start to the New Year for most of Arizona and New Mexico. There is considerable spread in the ensemble forecasts, however, a number of members are picking up a subtropical moisture plume. Will be interesting to watch how this situation evolves.
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