Comments On Odile Situation And Related Posts

Tony Haffer, MIC emeritus of the NWS Phoenix Forecast Office, wrote:
---------------------------------------
The two near misses reinforce the fact meteorology is an INEXACT science. I agree there is often an office “dynamic” (among other factors) that results in forecasters not updating forecasts going awry in favor of forecasts for improving conditions. That said, procedurally in the NWS there are operational priorities for all weather events. Updates for deteriorating weather and WARNINGS are the highest priority; whilst updates for improving weather, much lower. Consideration must be given to staff size, about a dozen meteorologists at each NWS office, as well as their 24-hr/day responsibilities, which include, Public and Aviation weather and Warnings; radar monitoring; telephone answering; social and electronic media communications. The dozen or so Mets maintain a 24/7 weather watch 365 days a year (as well as take medical and vacation Leave). This distills to two mets per shift, except during critical weather, when perhaps as many as four may be on shift together. Additionally, the staff’s responsibility covers an area something like 30,000+ sq. miles. Suffices to say the men and women who provide us weather forecast service MUST prioritize their actions to provide the most timely information that will result in actions to save lives and property. If observational data indicate a threat is CLEARLY over, then one can argue updating a forecast to say it’s not going to rain, is little more than paper/electronic exercise.

All this said, I strongly agree with you regarding the need for additional research relative to Eastern Pacific hurricane forecasting. While I feel you were overly polite calling NHC’s Odile forecasts erratic, I feel they were poor. NHC was constantly chasing the storm, and adjusting its track. Certainly the model guidance the NHC forecasters receive has room for improvement, but what I believe to be a glaring omission, is a serious lack of real time data. NHC forecasters have to do far too much estimating regarding Eastern Pacific storm strength and location (while NOAA/USAF hurricane hunter aircraft gather moss in the Southeast). Why is the Southwest ALWAYS shortchanged when it comes to dispatching equipment to probe Eastern Pacific storms? The answer, of course, is budgetary limitations. It is time for NOAA to reassess its de facto policy of not deploying hurricane hunter resources to the Eastern Pacific. More importantly, it’s time for NOAA to request, and for Congress to PROVIDE, funding so NOAA can provide a similar hurricane forecast SERVICE to the Southwest as it has always provided to the East and Southeast!

Tony Haffer, NWS (ret.)