Sunday, October 12, 2014

The Week Ahead


Tropical Storm Fay struck Bermuda overnight with some wind gusts over 80 mph. The storm is now expected to move rapidly east-northeastward. The NHC forecasts high chances of development of a depression or storm from a disturbance that is currently approaching the Windward Islands. Above is current NHC activity chart for the Atlantic and below is a visible satellite image from 1345 UTC this morning.



Over the U. S. the coming week will feature unsettled weather over the central and eastern portions of the country, as well as the far Northwest.  A 500 trough currently over the northern Rockis will will amplify as it moves southeastward across the Four Corners Region, developing into a major trough over the Southern Plains. This system closes off and moves slowly eastward during midweek, before imapcting the northeast. Shown here are the GFS ensemble 500 mb means and spaghetti plots. Above graphic is valid at 1200 UTC on 15 October and below is valid at 1200 UTC on 19 October. The GFS ensemble members display little spread in their forecasts (except high latitudes, through next weekend. The West will enjoy mostly mild and fairly typical Fall weather.


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