Sunday, October 18, 2015

Another Round Of Storms After Dark Yesterday

After the early morning storms moved away to the north yesterday, things were quiet across the local area until evening, when another area of thunderstorms moved in from the south-southwest. The IR image above is from 8:00 pm MST and shows the center of action for the state was overhead. The two CG flash density plots below (from and Vaisala) are for the 12-hours and the 24-hours ending at 6:15 am this morning. Pima and Santa Cruz Counties experienced substantial thunderstorm activity.

Here at the house the evening rains added another 0.28' to the multi-episode weather event, which has brought 0.66" total rainfall here. During the night (5:00 pm MST through 5:00 am this morning - Sunday, October 18th) coverage across the ALERT network was 100%. There were 16 sites with over half an inch and 3 sites with over an inch - heaviest amounts at higher elevations.

The various models forecast a quiet day today with only isolated shower activity. If there is a fly in the ointment, it relates to the short-wave trough in the upper-troposphere that is approaching Baja from lower latitudes - water vapor image below is from 7:00 am MST. Loops of the satellite imagery seem to indicate that this feature is heading our way and models seem not to have gotten it into their initializations very well. Something else to watch this afternoon.

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