The WRF model forecasts yesterday kept most thunderstorm activity to our north, which turned out pretty much the way it was. Activity was much reduced over Pima and Santa Cruz Counties, but with quite strong storms to the north. Plot above of CG flashes is for 24-hours ending at 1130 UTC this morning. Only 17 sites in the ALERT network measured light rainfall through 5:00 am MST this morning. Severe storms yesterday were focused mostly in Arizona - there were 27 reports logged at SPC (below) for severe wind and hail in the state (with only other severe for day up in Utah). The Arizona reports were mostly in the greater Phoenix area, but there were two reports of 1 inch hail southwest of Oro Valley.
The WRF models forecast a quiet day for southeastern Arizona today. However, by tomorrow afternoon another closed low is forecast to have dug south to a position near Yuma, and that cyclone will be our system of interest for mid-week. Below is 00 UTC NAM 500 mb forecast valid at 5:00 pm tomorrow.
Hurricane Olaf has developed out in the Pacific, and it is forecast to turn north later in its life but also to stay far offshore.
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