Thursday, October 29, 2015

Early Morning Showers And Thunderstorms

There are showers and some thunderstorms bubbling around much of southeast Arizona this morning, with quite a few CG flashes being detected, particularly in Pinal County. Composite radar above is from 7:19 am MST and visible satellite image below is from 7:15 am.

The morning skewT plot for the TWC sounding is shown second below (from SPC) and indicates strong steering level winds for rapid storm movements to the northeast. The layer with a fair amount of CAPE (about 750 to 350 mb) is shallow but indicates considerably updraft velocities through the -10 to -20 C region, so the CG flashes are not surprising, even though storm tops are low.

The WRF forecasts from Atmo have trended toward less precipitation with this event than was forecast yesterday, especially in the 06 UTC GFS version. Shown here are the 06 UTC WRF-NAM forecast above of accumulated precipitation through noon tomorrow (Friday the 30th), while below is the same forecast from the WRF-GFS. The GFS version is now only slightly wetter than the NAM, while yesterday it was very wet over in Cochise County. However, this third or fourth event for October, making this a quite good month for rainfall down here at lower elevations. 

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