We've been away for several days, but I see this morning that the models are still forecasting the 500 mb low that is currently west of Baja (above is initial 500 mb analysis from WRF-GFS at 00 UTC last evening on the 5.4 km grid). This is the low that moved across northern Arizona the first three days of last week, producing severe thunderstorms and at least one tornado in southern Arizona on October 6th.
The 500 mb low moves northwestward, and then northward and then northeastward within the GFS-WRF forecasts, so that by midnight next Friday night (below) it is centered near Needles, California.
At this time the WRF-GFS forecasts the most significant precipitation associated with this "goes around" feature to be focused over the mountains of Southern California and central Arizona (bottom is WRF-GFS forecast of accumulated precipitation through midnight next Friday). Of course, this is a very long way off, but there is certainly interesting weather to keep an eye on this week.
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