Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Models In Better Agreement But Uncertainties Remain

The global models have trended toward a middle ground for the end of week system. Shown here are the 72-hour 500 mb forecasts from last evening, valid at 5:00 pm MST on Thursday afternoon - ECMWF above and GFS below. The systems have similar structures now, but the GFS remains about 12-hours faster than the ECMWF.

The NAM at 72-hours (above) is similar to the GFS, but with considerably weaker vorticity maxima. So, it is still a bit of a monitoring situation re how all this turns out. The WRF model forecasts from last evening are indicating a wetter event for the GFS version. The WRF-GFS forecast of accumulated precipitation through 5:00 pm MST on Friday the 30th is shown below, indicating heaviest amounts at higher elevations, but with rain across all of eastern Pima County.

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