The 500 mb closed low circulation is currently a bit to the northeast of Tucson and opening up as system moves eastward and southward. This weather event again unfolded in two stages. During the day yesterday there were periods of showers and thunderstorms across eastern Pima County, but with mostly light amounts, except right around the Rincons and Redington Pass. About 45% of the ALERT sites measured rain yesterday with the notable amounts being nearly 1.5 inches at both Italian Trap Tank and Mescal sites at north and south ends of the Rincons.
After midnight, showers became more widespread with 100% of the ALERT stations measuring rainfall. Four stations around the Rincons ended up with more than an inch and the total at Italian Trap reached 2.13". Here at the house we had 0.31" at 6:00 am MST but there have been more showers since then (see the 6:14 am radar chart above). Thunderstorm activity after midnight shifted southward and eastward away from the metro area. The plot of CG flash density (below for 24-hours ending at 6:00 am, from weather.graphics and Vaisala) shows how widespread thunderstorms were across much of Arizona.
The WRF model forecasts from Atmo indicate showers into early afternoon, before skies begin to clear for what will probably be the coolest night of the Fall so far. Depending on when the skies clear, temperatures may drop in the upper-thirties here along the Rillito (note it did drop to 40 F already this month here on the 23rd and 24th).
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