Sunday, January 03, 2016

This Morning's WRF Forecasts

Just a quick look at the WRF-GFS 06 UTC forecasts from Atmo. The two forecasts here are for total precipitation through 5:00 am MST on Saturday, January 9th. Above is the 2.8 km grid forecast, while below is the broader-scale forecast on the 5.4 km grid. The coming week promises to be a very significant event for Arizona and California, especially in regions where orographic enhancement increases the amounts in the forecasts. The gradient in the high-resolution forecast between Winslow and Flagstaff covers almost two orders of magnitude. The extreme dryness over the Little Colorado Basin is due to strong downslope flow in the model forecasts.

At the bottom is the MIMIC PW from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin valid at 10 UTC this morning. A third atmospheric river has developed along the area from 140 to 155 degrees West and along and south of 30 degrees North. The MIMIC loops shows that the high PW subtropical air south of 20 degrees North has begun inching northeastward - it will be interesting to watch how far this moist air advects northward during the next couple of days.

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