There is heavy cloud cover over southeastern Arizona this morning, with some sprinkles and virga. Photo above is looking south at about 5:45 am MST. Graphic below (from Atmo and Vaisala) shows 12-hour detected CG flashes through 10:30 pm last evening. Widespread thunderstorm activity in Mexico has produced extensive debris cloudiness (middle and upper level) that has moved northward over parts of Arizona.
Visible satellite image at 7:45 am (above) shows the extensive cloudiness, which may complicate the temperature forecast for this afternoon. The composite radar image below is for 8:08 am MST. The current NWS forecast for TUS is for sprinkles this morning and for 10% chance of measurable through 5:00 pm. Forecast high is 106 F.
I looked at the 06 UTC WRF forecasts but neither version seemed to have the extent and/or location of the extensive light sprinkles well-forecast. Best strategy seems to be to take a look at the 12 UTC forecasts when they become available.
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