The GEFS 500 mb forecasts for a week from now (valid time 00 UTC on 22 October) are interesting in that the most uncertainty occurs over the continental U.S. The above shows the spaghetti plot for the various members forecast of 500 mb heights at that time.
Here are two of the ensemble member forecasts. The forecast above features a deep trough over the eastern U.S. and an anticyclone over northwestern Arizona. However, the member forecast below features a cutoff low over Arizona and a weak ridge over the eastern U.S. What will actually happen? We'll check back several times during the coming week.
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