Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Chance For Light Showers Thursday

Continued clear skies here in Tucson - view of Catalinas little changed for a week (see post below). Some color in the sunrise at Cabo San Lucas with the cirrus to the south (bottom).

Later this week the tail end of a 500 mb short wave will swing across Arizona. The 500 mb forecast above (from 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast at Atmo) is valid at 6:00 pm MST on Thursday the 16th. Plumes below are for PW from GEFS runs (also at 06 UTC last night). Note that a significant intrusion of higher PW (from the south) occurs as the short wave swings by.

These factors bring chances for light showers on Thursday - above is last night's WRF-GFS forecast for composite radar echoes valid at 2:00 pm Thursday afternoon. Below (from same forecast run) is forecast of total precipitation through 6:00 am on the 17th. 

Current forecasts indicate a wimpy event, but a bit of weather nevertheless. If the 500 short wave sharpens up more than currently forecast, chances improve for a bit more rainfall here in metro.

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