Monday, January 20, 2020

Chance Of Showers Tonight Into Tomorrow Morning

Heavy clouds over our area before sunrise on MLK Day.

The IR satellite image above (from 6:00 am MST) shows plume of high clouds from southwest extending over much of the West. As weak, but large, piece of western 500 mb trough swings across Arizona (forecast below from 00 UTC GFS valid at 6:00 am tomorrow morning), there will be a chance for showers across our area - much like the previous system on the 16th.

Plumes for QPF (from 03 UTC via SPC) at the airport above indicate rain chances late tonight through tomorrow morning. Average amount in forecasts only about 0.05" (heavy black line), again not a significant event. But, if you look back to the 16th, the plumes considerably under-forecast the QPF. Perhaps again? The forecast sounding below for TWC (from 06 UTC WRF-GFS) is valid tomorrow morning appears favorable, and is mostly saturated with PW of an inch.

Forecast for total precipitation at bottom (from same run and valid through 5:00 pm tomorrow afternoon) indicates amounts similar to the 16th, rather than very light amounts forecast by average of the plumes. Another wait and see event.

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