Nice start to new week, but cooler with chances for showers by midweek. Down at bottom is Yosemite Falls in the snow this morning.
The 500 mb analysis this morning (from NCAR RAP - above) shows a closed low northwest of San Francisco. This feature forecast to move southward toward San Diego and meander around the Southwest into the coming weekend. Forecast below (from 00 UTC ECMWF) for 500 mb is valid at 5:00 pm MST next Friday afternoon.
The water vapor image from 1350 UTC this morning (above) seems to indicate two circulation centers in middle to upper troposphere - making the situation a bit more complex than indicated in analysis and forecast above. Remains to be seen how accurate the forecasts will be, given what appears to be a fairly poor analysis this morning.
The plumes for QPF at the airport (from 06 UTC runs) indicate a mis-mash of light rainfall possibilities into start of next week - all amounts are light indicating the moisture-starved character of coming event(s).
Should be interesting to watch how all this actually evolves.
No comments:
Post a Comment