Last evening's supermoon rising with some low clouds hindering views at times.
The 500 mb closed low is west of San Diego this morning (above - pretty much as fore cast by models last few days). Precipitation at this time (7:00 am MST) is focussed over Southern California (regional radar from NCAR RAP below).
Low-level winds here this morning are southerly to south-southwesterly with speeds as high as 30 kts a bit above the surface - so gusty winds likely after some morning heating.
The 500 mb low is forecast to move slowly eastward along our Borderlands and be near Tucson by midnight Friday night (above).
As the low moves by forecast models indicate good chances for precipitation in our area area. The QPF plumes from 06 UTC last night average out to a bit over 0.10" at airport (above). The 06 UTC WRF-GFS is a bit more aggressive for amounts over eastern Pima County (below from 06 UTC run, with half an inch forecast for airport). Regardless, looks like good chances for our first rain here in more than three weeks.
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