Few clouds hanging on the Catalinas before sunrise this morning. Down at bottom: early morning rain at LAX and snow at Big Bear Lake (lake is in mountains east of San Bernardino at almost 7,000 ft MSL).
Closed low at 500 mb over southern California this morning forecast to wobble slowly eastward and come across Arizona Friday night and Saturday. The forecast above (from 06 UTC GFS) indicates low centered west of us over southern Arizona at 6:00 am MST Saturday morning. Forecast sounding for TWC at that time (below, from 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast) has only a bit over half an inch PW, but with some CAPE - possible rumbles of thunder during the rain event.
Plumes for QPF at TUS (from the 06 UTC GEFS forecasts) are very consistent for rain at airport late Friday night and during day Saturday. Forecast amounts average about 0.15" - embedded thunderstorms could produce local heavier amounts around eastern Pima County. The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast for precipitation amounts through midnight Saturday night (below) indicates about a tenth inch at airport and higher amounts on the mountains. Models do indicate some snow at higher elevations of Catalinas and Rincons.
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