Red sunrise this morning highlighted clouds over the Catalinas above. Below is view at 7:00 am MST of heavy clouds over the GoC southwest of Puerto Penasco, Mexico.
The morning 500 mb analysis for 12 UTC (above from SPC site) shows that the closed low has moved about as predicted for several days, and is centered about right over Yuma.
Visible satellite image from 7:00 am (above) shows clouds associated with the circulation - the closed middle and upper-level low will move along the Borderlands today, bringing us a chance for showers continuing into the night. Showers currently developing over mountains locally. Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala below) shows that thunderstorms have moved into far southwestern Pima County during past 3 hours.
The 06 UTC SREF plumes for QPF at TUS (above from SPC website) continue showing 100 percent of the ensemble models predicting rainfall - but amounts continue to average only around a tenth inch or so. Thunderstorms would likely produce amounts somewhat higher, if they occur over parts of metro area.
Regardless an unsettled start to the weekend, but clearing skies likely for Easter Sunday.
Finally, the SPC is outlooking a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms for the Southeast tomorrow (below).
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