The Bighorn fire has now burned over 100,000 acres of the Catalinas. The fire is almost 50% contained this morning and most growth is on the southeast flank toward the San Pedro river valley. Map above from around midnight last night. View below from 10:32 am MST shows active smoke plume toward far east side of image.
There were thunderstorms in southeast Arizona yesterday, as per plot of detected CGs above (from Atmo and Visala; for 24-hours ending at midnight). Storms were mostly over southern Cochise County, although there was some activity over and near the fire. Rainfall map for past 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning (below from MesWest) shows significant amounts just north of the border. Art Douglas reports that he measured 0.97 inches at his place in lower Ash Canyon (near the 0.8" amount). Of course, there was nothing here, although for a while it looked like we might get a sprinkle.
As we head toward the Fourth of July, it appears that things could become more active in our area. The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) show a wildly variant set of forecast from the ensemble members - both in timing and amounts - but certainly not the flat-line forecast we've been seeing for so long.
Forecast below is from the 06 UTC run of the GFS model and is for rainfall ending at 5:00 am on July 5th. Amounts are light but cover much of eastern Arizona. Something to hopefully look forward to.
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