Monday, June 29, 2020

July Begins With Showers


Sunrise this morning above - Bighorn fire has burned on off to east of this image. The fire is still less than 50% contained and is burning on east slopes of Catalinas and Redington Pass. Fire conditions will be plagued by strong, gusty winds today and tomorrow.


Wind forecast above is valid at 1:00 pm this afternoon (from the 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast run). The NWS morning outlook for winds today is shown below.



By Wednesday a chance for showers and thunderstorms will be developing as a weak, 500 mb short wave moves from Baja into southeastern Arizona. The WRF-RR forecast above is valid at 12 UTC 1 July. Forecasts below are for composite radar echoes from the same model run: top valid at 4:00 pm MST on the 1st and second valid at 10:00 pm. Forecast for total precipitation through 7:00 am on the second, again from same model run, is at bottom. If forecast verifies, we'll start July with a nice thunderstorm event.



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