Map above showing current boundaries of the Bighorn fire - fire has grown to over 80,000 acres and has been spreading north and west. It is interesting that a fire crew from Missoula, Montana, has been working to establish fire lines to protect Biosphere 2 from the fires advance.
Models continue with some flip-flopping regarding chances for showers and storms before June comes to an end. All the graphics shown here are from the 00 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo. Forecast of PW (above) is valid at 6:00 pm MST on Sunday the 28th and indicates a push of values over an inch into southeast Arizona (PW this morning is at 0.57"). Forecast below is of radar echoes valid at 1:00 am on the 28th.
Forecast above is for total precipitation through midnight on the 28th. Amounts are light and mostly at higher elevations. Winds are a concern and current forecasts indicate a period of strong winds Saturday night (below is valid at 3:00 am on morning of the 28th).
Forecast TWC sounding (above for 6:00 pm on 28th)) appears somewhat favorable for afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon. Note that a warm cap at 450 mb is hinted at - will watch how all this evolves.
Finally, the longer term GFS forecasts indicate that the 500 mb anticyclone will establish itself near the Four Corners by Fourth of July weekend (below is valid at 12 UTC on the Fourth).
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